The bear market rally is testing our Elliott Wave analysis limits. New post-2011 highs in the Dow last week cause us to be cognisant of an alternative scenario which would see the bull-run continue. The weight of technical evidence though still suggests that a multi-month outright bullish case is a low probability. The US Dollar remains in the early stages of a large rally, US Forward Breakeven rates point to “de” rather than “in” flation and CDS indices are at support zones.
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