May soybeans were trading up 5 cents late in the overnight session. China futures closed slightly higher overnight and palm oil futures in Malaysia closed 1.1% higher. Asia equity markets were higher overnight as that region was anticipating something favorable from the Greek debt swap but those markets were also tossing around the idea that the PBOC might be poised to embark on more easing efforts. European equity markets were also higher overnight off positive vibes off the upcoming Greek debt swap and those views also resulted in falling European debt yields. US equity markets were showing noted gains this morning, as it appears that most global equity markets think the Greek situation will take a positive turn today. While the market saw a softer than expected Australian Unemployment Report overnight, the focus of the trade might be expected to shift back to the US weekly initial claims results and perhaps to the Challenger Layoff report. With US Consumer Credit jumping sharply in the month of January in the report yesterday afternoon and the ADP figures yesterday mostly positive, the view toward the US economy remains positive and that has probably provided commodity markets with additional support over the last 24 hours of trade.
With a turn up in outside market forces and further evidence of a smaller Brazil soybean crop, the market found good support overnight. The Brazil government soybean forecast was released this morning at 68.75 million tonnes which is down from 69.23 as their February estimate and down from 72 million last year. The average trade estimate for the USDA report on Friday morning is 69.3 million tonnes. They also revised their export forecast down to 31.8 million tonnes as compared with 32.4 million in exports last year. The USDA reported broiler eggs set at 95% of last year which is about steady with recent readings and suggests slower meal demand in the next few months. Taiwan tendered yesterday to buy 40,000-60,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans and bought 60,000 tonnes from Brazil overnight. A major state-owned food processing company in China (Cofco) is looking for more overseas assets to acquire in the corn, soybean and sugar areas. May soybeans closed moderately lower on the session yesterday and the reversal after first trading at the highest level since September 22nd is seen as negative technical development. Outside market forces were positive and turned more positive after the opening yesterday and this helped to provide some early support for the complex but a steady and aggressive selling pace by fund traders in corn and wheat helped to pressure soybeans. Iran is tendering for 100,000 tonnes of soybean meal. Traders see weekly export sales for soybeans near 550,000 tonnes, meal near 75,000 and oil near 12,500 tonnes. On Friday, traders look for ending stocks to come in around 260 million bushels, down from 275 million estimated in February. World ending stocks are expected to drop to 57.75 million tonnes from 60.28 million last month as South American production is adjusted lower. However, some traders are looking for a 4-6 million tonne drop in production for Brazil, Argentina
and Paraguay so combined, so it may take a drop in demand to pull world ending stocks down by only 3 million tonnes. There are still no deliveries against the March soybean contract. There were 181 contracts for meal delivered this morning bringing the total to 391. Oil deliveries came in at 933 bringing month-to-date total to 8,454.
If we assume that world production will be adjusted lower by 4.5 million tonnes, it would leave world production at 247 million tonnes. This would be down a whopping 17.2 million tonnes from last year and would be the largest annual decline on record. This downward shift in production helps to push some demand into the Northern Hemisphere’s new crop season and increases the need for a high yields.
SOYBEANS (MAY): A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is 1314 1/4. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1334 1/4 and 1344, while 1st support hits today at 1319 1/4 and below there at 1314 1/4.
StockMarketNews Research Team