May wheat was trading 6 1/2 cents higher late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look positive this morning with a firm tone to equity and metal markets and a lower USD. Ideas that Russia is already showing cheaper values for new crop exports helped to spark an aggressive selling trend for wheat yesterday. The break occurred even with positive outside market forces and cheaper US old crop supply on the world market. Egypt announced a tender for wheat after the close yesterday and bought 60,000 tonnes of wheat from the US this morning which is not a surprise. May wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday led by active fund trader selling. The active selling pace was a bit of a surprise given the positive tilt to outside market forces but talk of good weather for the winter wheat crop and warmer and drier weather recently in the northern plains helping prepare the soil for early plantings of the spring wheat crop helped to pressure. Many traders thought wheat could open up as much as 2 cents higher but even after outside market forces improved significantly from pre-opening levels, sellers were active in wheat to drive the market sharply lower on the day and down as much as 41 1/4 cents from Monday’s highs. Traders see weekly export sales for release this morning near 375,000 tonnes. The outlook for a continued rise in US ending stocks for the 2012/13 season and the lack of a major weather threat for now helped to spark fairly aggressive selling from speculators in recent days. There were 3 deliveries of wheat this morning which brings the total for the month to 18.
After a 3-day set-back in a market which is already oversold, the downside looks somewhat limited. Position traders might wait for a recovery bounce before selling. May wheat resistance comes in at 652 1/4 and 657 and the close under 662 this week could signal a resumption of the downtrend with 611 as a longer-term downside objective.
WHEAT (MAY): The close below the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned down. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is now at 621. The next area of resistance is around 650 1/2 and 666 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 628 and below there at 621.
StockMarketNews Research Team