July wheat was trading 11 1/4 cents higher near 7:30 am cst. Outside market forces look supportive this morning with a bounce in equity markets and some weakness in the USD. Selling pressures emerged late on Friday to drive the market down to the lowest level since May 16. The surge higher in the USD and ideas that Black Sea region wheat losses will not be so bad as to significantly limit exports have helped drive the market lower. Increasing harvest pressures have also been seen as a bearish force. Egypt has bought 2.6 million tonnes of wheat from their local market as compared with 2.2 million by the same time last year. This may allow the country to reduce import needs for the coming season. July wheat closed sharply lower on the session Friday. A midday turn higher in nearby corn and soybeans failed to spark much buying in wheat, and sellers stayed active late in the day when corn collapsed. An active harvest period just ahead for winter wheat helped to pressure. The surge in the US dollar has also curtailed buying interest for US wheat, and wheat’s premium to corn has caused demand for wheat as a feedgrain to diminish. The weekly export sales report for the week ending May 24th showed net cancellations of 6,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and net sales of 325,600 for the next marketing year for an overall net of 319,200, which was below trade expectations. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 100% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 97.3%. Sales of 6,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. European milling wheat futures closed 1.3% lower on Friday to add to the negative tone and the market is down 0.7% this morning. The Commitments of Traders reports as of May 29th showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 9,405 contracts, an increase of 5,278 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net short position of 11,227 contracts, down 4,790 for the week and the short-covering and buying trends are seen as somewhat supportive. Commodity Index traders held a net long of 206,604 contracts, down 2,479. The market has pulled back further than expected and the turn higher in the other grains might help provide some support.
WHEAT (JUL): The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned down. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside target is 585. The next area of resistance is around 630 and 656, while 1st support hits today at 594 1/2 and below there at 585.
StockMarketNews Research Team